breakdown of Myles Turner’s 4-year, $107 million contract with the Milwaukee Bucks in 2025 free agency—how it benefits them, fits their style, and what risks come with it.
1. The Signing Basics 🏀
- Contract: Four years, $107 million (~$26.75 M AAV), including a player option in 2028‑29 and a full 15 % trade kicker (nba.com).
- Cap Move: Bucks stretched and waived Damian Lillard’s remaining
$113 M over five years to free cap space ($22.5 M dead cap/year) (sbnation.com).
2. 🟢 Fit & Role with the Bucks
A. Replacing Brook Lopez
- Brook Lopez departed for the Clippers, leaving a void at center. Turner offers similar—and arguably enhanced—capabilities: elite rim protection and floor spacing (sbnation.com).
- His 39.6 percent accuracy from deep and ~2 blocks per game mirror Lopez’s impact, but Turner is younger (29 vs. 37) and more mobile (espn.com).
B. Synergy with Giannis
- Turner’s ability to stretch the floor forces opposing bigs out of the paint—opening driving lanes for Giannis (dknetwork.draftkings.com).
- On defense, he alleviates rim protection duties from Giannis, allowing him to roam defensively .
C. Projected Rotation
A typical opening-night rotation:
- Starters: Porter Jr. (PG), Trent Jr. (SG), Kuzma (SF), Giannis (PF), Turner (C)
- Bench depth: include Portis, Sims, Prince, KPJ (fansided.com).
3. Financial & Strategic Implications
A. Creative Cap Maneuvering
- Stretching Lillard’s deal freed enough space to swing for Turner, despite being over the tax line (sbnation.com).
- The deal avoids sacrificing future picks, preserving asset flexibility (espn.com).
B. Contract Structure
- Player option and trade kicker boost Turner’s leverage later and make the contract more movable if necessary (brewhoop.com).
- The cost is high—averaging close to $27 M per year—and will count heavily against the Bucks’ cap, especially combined with Lillard’s stretched cap hit.
4. 🟠 Upside vs Risks
A. Upside
- Turner’s 3-and-D skill set uniquely aligns with Giannis’s play style, looping defense with spacing .
- The center position urgency—Brook Lopez gone—makes Turner a significant upgrade if he remains healthy and productive.
- His playoff experience (avg ~13.8 pts, 4.8 reb, 2 blks in postseason 2025 Finals) lends immediate credibility (aljazeera.com).
B. Risks
- Decline & durability – At 29, Turner could start to slow. A Reddit user warns:
“Turner isn’t worth $30 M+, he’s a shot‑blocker and 3‑pointer but that’s kinda it… completely disappear at times” (reddit.com).
- Rebounding concerns – Some view him as less effective on the glass compared to elite centers (reddit.com).
- Cap constraints long-term – Lillard’s stretch eats ~14 % of cap space for five years, limiting future flexibility (sbnation.com).
- Untested pairing – While analysts love the fit, the duo of Giannis and Turner still needs performance validation (sbnation.com).
5. Market Grade: A– to B+
A. Tony Price Tag & Comparison
- Turner’s deal at $26.75 M AAV is rich relative to his counting stats (~15.6 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2 BPG), but is inline with premium centers like Al Horford and Brook Lopez .
B. Eastern Conference Implications
- DraftKings odds shifted: Bucks’ title odds improved from +6000 to +4000; Eastern Conference odds from +1800 to +1300 (dknetwork.draftkings.com).
- The move reasserts Milwaukee as serious contenders, but still behind the Celtics, Cavs, Hawks, etc.
C. Strategic Grade
- Fit: A. Turner literally slots into what Bucks needed.
- Financial commitment: B–. Risky in length and size; they’ll need to avoid long-term stagnation or crashes.
- Overall: B+. The upside with Giannis and a refreshed frontcourt is compelling—even with a heavy price.
6. Broader Impacts
- On Giannis: His displeasure over Lillard’s departure has been reported (fansided.com, sbnation.com), but bringing Turner might placate him by signaling aggressive team-building.
- On the Pacers: Indiana lost their Finals-era anchor due to tax constraints, shifting them into potential retooling mode (washingtonpost.com).
7. Final Verdict
Grade: B+
✅ What works:
- Turner is tailor‑made for Milwaukee’s needs—rim protection, spacing, playoff experience.
- The front office’s cap strategy was bold and clever, pulling off an unprecedented move (stretch + 4‑year max) (sbnation.com).
- Contract flexibility (player option, trade kicker) guards against long-term paralysis.
⚠️ What worries me:
- Long-term cap mess with Lillard’s dead money hog—limits future flexibility.
- Performance risk: Turner’s health, rebounding, and overall impact versus compensation remain unpredictable.
- Chemistry: Integrating a new primary big alongside Giannis is unproven—success depends on role clarity and transitions.
Final Take
This is Milwaukee’s all‑in pivot: they sacrificed Lillard (large dead money) to land Turner, betting big on Giannis staying and rejuvenating the team’s frontcourt. If Turner delivers as a floor-spacing rim protector and keeps Giannis engaged, this could be a future-defining move. But if Turner falters or injuries strike, the Bucks could find themselves handcuffed by dead cap space and lacking flexibility.
The move is audacious, risky, but smartly centered on fit—worth a B+, with the potential to be much more if everything clicks.
